$200MM Gets Out of His Down Position ...

... and we go down.

I missed Friday. Sorry. The $200 million man is demonstrating the opposite concept very well these last week. Since last Wednesday:

Wednesday: 65.12/359.15 (he's all in or mostly in on the down side, and we go up)

Thursday: 63.88/184.90 (he gets out of his down position, and we have a down day)

Friday: 57.78/280.94 (gets at least partly back in on the down side, and we go up)

Today (Monday): 71.31/181.30 (he gets out again, and again we go down)

Again, it's always fun to speculate on the psychology. I'm going to guess that he's getting worn out and may just stay out here, which could let us go down.

The Nasdaq 100 got a little more positive the past couple days. Today was 109.34/87.24. You'll recall it was near even money last Thursday. My best guess is still that it must go negative before we reach a bottom. Just guessing though. We'll see what happens.

Rob

Nasdaq 100 Approaches Even Money

Yes, you guessed it. The $200 million man got out of his possibly all-in down position, and so of course we went down. The numbers so far this week for the S&P 500:

Monday: 73.30/222.31

Tuesday: 207.26/223.71

Wednesday: 65.12/359.15

Today (Thursday): 63.88/184.90

I was thinking the negative number had gotten over 200 without the $200 million man having some money in on the down side. But seeing that 184 number for today makes me wonder if he didn't have some money in all along. Maybe not. Maybe the negative number just fell down from the 220s to 184.

But the big news for today is that the Nasdaq 100 numbers got down to very near even money today. The numbers for today were 98.98/97.28. I am still guessing that we need to go negative though before we reach the bottom, probably several days to a week at least of negative numbers being larger than the positive numbers, before we reach the final low.

We are obviously retesting the lows from early July. It's interesting to see how people set up for it. If we break through the lows, one would think there could be a quick but huge move down. But if the lows hold, there would probably be a monstrous move up. So not even up to 100 on either the up side or down side. People are obviously stepping aside to see what happens. Will we continue to get more negative, which should give us a low fairly quickly? Or will there be some traders trying to jump in here on the up side, which would delay reaching the low?

I'll talk about it more as we go along, but we could be setting up for the infamous three peaks and domed house finale, with the recent up and down stuff from the past couple months is the three peaks, which would be followed by a final rally to possibly new highs, which would be the final high. It is interesting that the final part of the three peaks part of the pattern is a drop down below the previous few lows of the three peaks, and then the final rally begins. With the Nasdaq 100 being pretty much at even money here, possibly very near going negative, which it would surely do with a final quick move down here, I could definitely see a long, strong rally starting soon. It just seems like there's too much negativity right now to have that giant move down. But this paragraph is pure speculation.

Rob

$200MM Switches to Down Side

Yesterday, the $200 million man was half in on the up side. Today he switched to what I believe is about half in on the down side. Again, it's such a large number on the down side that I would normally believe he is all in. But in this case, I think this number was extremely large without him. So I think he's just half in. S&P 500 numbers so far this week:

Monday: 73.30/222.31

Tuesday: 207.26/223.71

Today (Wednesday): 65.12/359.15

And we managed a small gain after being down early. Hate to say it, but I would have expected a much larger up day with this big of a negative number. This is like a week or two ago, where we had similar numbers on the down side and did go up, but not any huge up days. I'm still wondering if we have to have the Nasdaq 100 go negative before we reach an important low. The Nasdaq 100 numbers so far this week:

Monday: 115.48/98.74

Tuesday: 114.60/88.92

Today: 117.99/86.57

So the Nasdaq is holding steady, which is not good if we need to go negative before reaching a bottom. The question is, what will it take to get the red number larger than the green number? How far down do we have to go? Notice that even though Tuesday was a fairly large down day, the positive number actually ticked slightly higher for today. So yesterday's fairly large down day didn't scare anyone in this fund. What will it take to scare them?

Rob

Horrible Possibilities

Oh, dear, dear, dear. I hate to think what we could be on the brink of here. I hope I'm wrong, I hope, I hope, I hope.

The Nasdaq 100 was slightly more positive today thanks to some people getting out of their negative positions. But basically the same. Yesterday was a positive 1.17, probably the lowest number of the year, and today was a positive 1.29. Still extremely low. And still we continue down. I believe more and more that that number has to go negative, at least, before we reach a bottom.

And wouldn't you know it, the $200 million man jumped in on the positive side today, half in. The S&P numbers for yesterday and today:

Yesterday: 73.30/222.31

Today: 207.26/223.71

I think we are ready for a giant move down anyway, and now we have him in there on the positive side too. Not looking good at all.

Rob

Severe Weather WARNING

Yes, this is a severe weather warning, not a watch. That means severe weather has actually been sighted.

I remain very concerned here. The numbers were as negative as ever today and yet we still continued down. As I said in an earlier post, when the majority is winning, you are generally getting near a high or low. In this case, the majority is definitely on the down side and yet they're winning. Unfortunately, this is looking to be a very, very important low we're searching for. In which case, I think the Nasdaq 100 numbers have to go negative before we see the final low of this move down. The Nasdaq numbers for the past week and today:

Last week Monday: 126.92 positive/73.94 negative = 1.72

Last week Tuesday: 133.57/78.83 = 1.69

Last week Wednesday: 131.45/84.90 = 1.55

Last week Thursday: 114.93/96.88 = 1.19 (wow ... extremely low)

Last week Friday: 121.44/91.94 = 1.32

Today: 115.48/98.74 = 1.17

So again, wow, extremely low final number today, but we still went down. Although we're within shouting distance of going negative, I'm afraid this could take two or three weeks to get down into negative territory and stay there for a couple days. Or maybe I'm wrong in thinking this is a powerful move down that will keep going down until the Nasdaq 100 numbers go negative. With this low of a Nasdaq 100 number, and with the Dow, S&P and Russell also extremely, extremely negative, there is plenty of gas to blast upwards. (But why didn't it happen the last few days?) We'll see what happens!

Rob

Friday, August 20, 2010

The numbers were pretty much the same today as they were yesterday. I still think the $200 million man is totally out of action right now and the S&P 500 just has a very negative number right now. The numbers again for yesterday and today in the S&P 500:

Yesterday: 74.02/210.80

Today: 78.87/210.34

This is not the most negative of the year or even close because the $200 million man isn't in on the down side. But I'll bet this is the most negative it's been without him involved.

The Nasdaq 100 numbers are still very negative, relatively speaking. Yesterday's quotient number was 1.19, today it was 1.32 on the positive side.

So everything is very negative, and yet ... we still were flat to slightly down. Just wondering, not predicting, but this does make me wonder if the move down is unfinished. Obviously, if you have the highest numbers at the market high and the lowest numbers at the lows, you have to have all the numbers in between. So even though the numbers are relatively negative, if there is more to go, it does make sense, unfortunately. Remember that the numbers in the Nasdaq 100 did actually go negative at the 2009 lows. So if this is a move down like that one, we still have a ways to go. Although we did get close to even money yesterday, so hopefully it wouldn't be a long ways, at least in terms of time.

We'll see what happens next week. I am concerned as this week ends. There are some extremely ugly possibilities here. But that's probably a good sign, that I'm concerned. Right?

Rob

Thursday, August 19, 2010

A large down day. Not what I expected with the $200 million all in on the down side the last two days. I figured he would stay there at least one more day. But he didn't.

This week's numbers so far for the S&P:

Monday: 177.68/247.81

Tuesday: 70.91/347.23

Wednesday: 64.98/347.39

and today: 74.02/210.80

So he got back out. And actually, looking at these numbers reminds me that he was possibly not all in. I'm used to seeing anything over 300 be all in. But this negative number is so high without him even being in, you see it's 210 today which I think is without him, that he might have been only half in or two-thirds in. But whatever. You see that he got out of his short position, and you see what the market did. I say it's related.

The big news is how negative the Nasdaq 100 went today. The Nasdaq 100 numbers for this week so far:

1.72, 1.69, 1.55, 1.19

Today's positive/negative numbers that yielded that 1.19 number were: 114.93/96.88

First of all, it's abnormal for the numbers to move strongly more negative and have a strong down day on that same day. But I think it's very good to see this number getting down to even money. All along on this recent decline, the one thing that wasn't looking like we had reached a low was the Nasdaq number never really got too low. But this is extremely low.

Hey, $200 million man, looks like we're going down. Better get back in there on the down side!

Rob

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Today's pretty flat day had me worried that the $200 million man had gotten out of his all-in short position. But no, he's still there, still all in. I would definitely have expected a large up day with him all in on the down side. Two possibilities, I think. One, and I have seen this before, it's just building up for a large move up in the next day or two. Or, two, it really wants to go down bad and him being all in on the down side was the only thing that kept the market afloat. We'll see what happens tomorrow. I didn't see anything today that would make him want to change his position. The S&P 500 has still failed to cross an apparent important threshold. In fact, he's probably out looking for a loan so he can increase his down position.

Everything else remains relatively negative. The Nasdaq 100, what I look to for what's happening longer term, has gotten back down to as negative as it's been for a while, after being way too positive a couple weeks ago. The last five quotient numbers for the Nasdaq 100, dividing the larger number by the smaller, which is almost always a positive number for this fund:

1.63, 1.59, 1.72, 1.69, 1.55

That 1.55 number is the lowest number since mid-July. Again, the highest I've ever seen was late last year and early this year at around 4.10, with the lowest number I've ever seen being something like negative 2.0, which came at the March lows of last year. Although even then it was only negative for a few days, if I recall correctly.

The Dow is very near the most negative it's been all year. Russell 2000 is within shouting distance of the most negative it's been all year.

I will note that the futures this Wednesday evening are down a monster number. So it appears the market will at least open way down, if not stay there. Some company must have had bad numbers. So this will be an interesting battle between the negativity I talked about above that I would think would make us go up, versus some bad news.

Rob

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Strong up day in the markets today. You'll recall yesterday the $200 million man was kind of half in on both the up side and down side. The numbers for the last three market days leading up to today in the S&P 500:

Last Thursday ($200 million man totally out):
83.81
213.10

Last Friday ($200 million man goes half in on the positive side):
210.82
210.72

Yesterday, Monday ($200 million man sells some of his up fund stake and puts it in the down fund, leaving kind of a half in position both up and down)
177.68
247.81

So I see today's large up day, and I know he must have done exactly what he did do, although I was a bit shocked at the extent he did it, until I saw a little news blurb. What did he do? Of course, he got out of his up position totally, and went all in on the down side. This action here is what my blog is all about. Hopefully you will stay tuned and watch as this repeats itself over and over and over. Remember, it's not just the $200 million man. I believe he is just the perfect representative sample of what is happening short term.

And those numbers for today were:
70.91
347.23

This did surprise me. He's always good for a laugh. But I did wonder about the strong negative move. Then I saw a news blurb that I think explains it, and that is there is apparently a strong resistance number in the S&P 500 at 1100. I would bet you anything that that is what the $200 million man was looking at. And what happened today was we had the large up day, but it failed to pierce that 1100 number. So the blurb I was reading had kind of a negative tone, even though it was a big up day, because we had failed to pierce that number.

It's always fun to try and figure out what the $200 million man will do next. Many times just one large up day is all it takes to scare him out of the position. These are double funds. So with the S&P 500 up whatever it was today, a large number, he lost twice that by being in this down fund. But having read the blurb about failing to pierce the 1100 number, I would definitely be willing to bet some money that he will keep that money on the down side tomorrow, leading to a possible giant up day. And if we do get a giant up day, then we've had two large up days in a row, which would make him not want to jump in on the up side because it's moved up so much in just two days, and so the rally continues. This is pure speculation. He can and will change from day to day. We'll see what happens.

The Nasdaq 100 money remained relatively unchanged, which is fairly negative, relatively speaking.

Rob

Monday, August 16, 2010

Kind of bizarre numbers today in the S&P 500. Our $200 million has apparently put money in on both the up side and down side. He had his half-in stake on the positive side yesterday, and now today he took some of that positive money and put it on the negative side. I believe this is one person or entity doing this. Judge for yourself.

The positive/negative numbers in the S&P 500 for the past week plus today, oldest to newest as you go down the list:

89.83/192.25
240.23/190.91
94.72/199.61
83.81/213.10
210.82/210.72

So that was last week. You can see the $200 million man in on the positive side on Tuesday and Friday. Then the numbers for today in the S&P 500: 177.68/247.81. I suppose it's possible that the negative number could jump from 210.72 last Friday to 247.81 today, but I strongly doubt it. That has to be some $200 million man money. And then you can see without the $200 million man, the positive numbers were around 80s to 90s last week. So there is very little chance that it jumped up to 177 today without some $200 million man money. Perhaps he wants to keep his up position, not sell it, but he wants to cover his butt with some negative money for now. I think the market has to get rid of this guy both up and down before we go either direction.

In the all-important Nasdaq 100, the result of dividing the higher number by the lower number for the past week and today is:

2.23, 2.24, 1.93, 1.63, 1.59, 1.72

So we're back down to numbers where we could go up ... or down. I can't tell you which way we're heading. It will be interesting to see the bucking bronco market get rid of the $200 million man in the coming days, both up side and down side.

Rob

Friday, August 13

So Thursday was a modest down day in the markets. How did traders react? Unfortunately, the $200 million man decided this was a good place to put some money in on the up side, so of course we went down some more. The market will need to get rid of him before we can go up. It could have gotten rid of him on Friday. We'll see on Monday.

I will mainly be focusing on two funds, the Xedyr (that's spelled backwards so a search engine won't find it hopefully) Nasdaq 100 x2 funds, regular and inverse, and the S&P 500 x2 funds, regular and inverse. By far the most important fund that I watch is the Nasdaq 100. I believe this gives a great long-term look at what's happening. And then the S&P 500 is interesting on a short-term basis. Watching the $200 million man is very instructive as to what's going on. He represents the common man, me, you. And the $200 million man mainly trades the S&P 500 x2 fund, regular and inverse.

The numbers for the past week for the Nasdaq 100:

Monday: 145.93 in the positive fund
65.51 in the negative fund

145.93 divided by 65.51 = 2.23

Tuesday: 153.48
68.41 = 2.24

Wednesday: 137.07
71.06 = 1.93

Thursday: 126.10
77.59 = 1.63

Friday: 122.14
76.88 = 1.59

So the Nasdaq 100 number is coming down to a more reasonable level, where we could go up again. Anything over 2.0 is getting pretty high. The highest numbers I've ever seen were at the highs last fall and then again early this year, where it got up to around 4.12 both times. The lowest I've seen was at the lows of March of last year, where this fund did finally go negative for a few days. So that's the range that I've seen. If I knew whether we were still going up on the bull market that started in March of last year or whether the highs earlier this year was it and we've started a major move down, I could tell you when we reach that low or high with these numbers. Unfortunately, I don't know whither we go from here. I'm leaning toward up, mainly based on the fact that we are uncannily tracing out the same pattern we did earlier in the year, and that earlier pattern led to a nice long rally, so I'm thinking this one could lead to even longer and stronger rally, although that could lead to the final high. But I certainly could be wrong.

The numbers for the S&P 500 for the past week:

Monday: 89.83
192.25 = 2.14

Tuesday: 240.23
190.91 = 1.26

(So the $200 million man jumps half in on the up side
on Tuesday. It's a mild down day. He jumps back out for Wednesday.)

Wednesday: 94.72
199.61 = 2.11

(A large down day. This surprises me, with the $200 million man not
still on the positive side. And that down side number is getting
shockingly large.)

Thursday: 83.81
213.10 = 2.54

(Wow, over 200 on the down side without the $200 million man
involved. Very, very negative. When I see the majority winning,
as they did on the down side on Wednesday and Thursday, I
have seen this as a sign that we're reaching a low in the past.
We'll see. Unfortunately, we have a problem on Friday.)

Friday: 210.82
210.72 = 1.00

(So even though things are very negative, the $200 million man
decided this was possibly a low and so he went in halfway on the
positive side. And it was a down day. As I said, he has to give
up this position before we can go up, I think. But that could be
Monday.)

To go up for a while, the market needs to keep that guy out of
the positive fund. It does that sometimes just by wearing him
out, to where he just goes to heck with it, I know we're reaching a
low here somewhere, but I'm just going to sit back for a while and
let it get started without me just to make sure.

Rob

August 12, 2010

Even though the numbers are on the extreme negative side (relatively speaking), we still had a down day today. Not an absolute rule, but what I have noticed is that usually when the majority starts winning, you are near a low or high, whatever you're looking for, in this case a low.

Today's numbers:

Dow: 14.68 positive money
52.49 negative money

(Obviously way negative, but the Dow can go all over the place, so this doesn't mean much to me.)

S&P 500: 83.81
213.10

(Now that's significant to me. I would normally see something in the 200s and I would think the $200 million is in part way, but I actually think this is just extreme negativity without the $200 million taking part. It was 199.61 yesterday. So that's very negative. And yet we had a down day. Interesting.)

Nazdaq 100: 126.10
77.59

(Definitely relatively negative for the Nasdaq 100, although the negative number isn't very big. But that 126 positive number is very, very low. So relatively negative here, but extreme would be getting down to a one-to-one or even more negative money than positive. So this number says there still could be some more downside, maybe.)

Russell 2000: 28.10
61.78

(Wow. Extreme move to the negative side in just a couple days. Losing nearly 10% over the last three days will do that to you. This number is approaching the most negative number of the year.)

And another possible sign was that the Biotech number was up today. Biotech is frequently a leading indicator.

I can't quite imagine a giant move down with numbers like these, although this is of course a learning process.