Nasdaq 100 Approaches Even Money

Yes, you guessed it. The $200 million man got out of his possibly all-in down position, and so of course we went down. The numbers so far this week for the S&P 500:

Monday: 73.30/222.31

Tuesday: 207.26/223.71

Wednesday: 65.12/359.15

Today (Thursday): 63.88/184.90

I was thinking the negative number had gotten over 200 without the $200 million man having some money in on the down side. But seeing that 184 number for today makes me wonder if he didn't have some money in all along. Maybe not. Maybe the negative number just fell down from the 220s to 184.

But the big news for today is that the Nasdaq 100 numbers got down to very near even money today. The numbers for today were 98.98/97.28. I am still guessing that we need to go negative though before we reach the bottom, probably several days to a week at least of negative numbers being larger than the positive numbers, before we reach the final low.

We are obviously retesting the lows from early July. It's interesting to see how people set up for it. If we break through the lows, one would think there could be a quick but huge move down. But if the lows hold, there would probably be a monstrous move up. So not even up to 100 on either the up side or down side. People are obviously stepping aside to see what happens. Will we continue to get more negative, which should give us a low fairly quickly? Or will there be some traders trying to jump in here on the up side, which would delay reaching the low?

I'll talk about it more as we go along, but we could be setting up for the infamous three peaks and domed house finale, with the recent up and down stuff from the past couple months is the three peaks, which would be followed by a final rally to possibly new highs, which would be the final high. It is interesting that the final part of the three peaks part of the pattern is a drop down below the previous few lows of the three peaks, and then the final rally begins. With the Nasdaq 100 being pretty much at even money here, possibly very near going negative, which it would surely do with a final quick move down here, I could definitely see a long, strong rally starting soon. It just seems like there's too much negativity right now to have that giant move down. But this paragraph is pure speculation.

Rob