My almost perfect short-term representative sample did jump in big-time on the negative side today, and you see what happens. I'm speaking of the person or entity who plays the S&P 500 and is almost always wrong. It is truly amazing to watch. I suspect he won't stay there long, as he jumped in and lost nearly 10% today, since these are double funds that I watch. These funds I watch move twice as much as the index they are based on. They force your hand, is what they do. I suspect this will be a one-day affair for this guy, making us vulnerable to resuming the move down on Wednesday. Or maybe not. You never know with this guy. It's very obvious that this is one person or entity making these moves because you can the money move in lumps. And he's almost always wrong. If he's not wrong, something is usually up, like an important bottom or top.
The positive/negative numbers for the S&P 500 last week and so far this week:
Monday, August 1: 166.57/101.41 (S&P 500 down just a modest amount as we await the debt ceiling settlement and market takeoff, he's thinking -- I'm surprised we weren't down more as he's on the positive side)
Tuesday, August 2: 176.68/99.74 (markets down a large amount as he remains on the positive side)
Wednesday, August 3: 130.72/140.09 (he does some selling but keeps a fair amount of money on the positive side as the market rallies a little)
Thursday, August 4: 75.76/125.83 (he gets out totally and we have a very large down day, which surprises me -- showing my short-term indicator of this guy is not perfect)
Friday, August 5: 77.64/164.25 (he remains out, and we have a modest down day)
Monday, August 8: 70.23/145.18 (still out, and we have a monster down day, which surprises me a bit since without him things are very negative -- this could just be market really, really wants to go down)
Today, Tuesday, August 9: 64.97/231.50 (so here he obviously jumps in on the negative side and gets killed as we have a huge up day)
So will he stay on the negative side, which would lead to more rallying? Or will he get out, leaving us vulnerable to more downward movement? Or will he go, wow, how stupid of me, we're obviously heading up now, and switch from negative to positive, which I can guarantee you would lead to a large down day?
But longer term, the Nasdaq 100 numbers were still at 2.69 times the money on the positive side versus the negative side today. So even if he stays negative and we rally some more, my blog guarantees that the move down is not over. That 2.69 number is a number you'd see at a major top, not a bottom.
Rob
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment