Evidence It's Down After All

I've been going back and forth on which way this market is going short term, whether we're on our way up on a long up run, or whether we still have some up-and-down action to go first. I have noticed one pattern that suggests it's down.

Back in mid-September, at the temporary high we had back then, the positive/negative numbers made a distinctive little pattern. First it climbed the ladder up to a very high number, above 3.00, followed by a large drop down to 1.75 the very next day, followed by two more days in that range. Then, to complete this pattern, it jumped back up to a very large number of 3.49 the first day after those three low days, then one more day with about the same very large number, with the high coming at the end of those three low-positive-volume days, and then we had a large fall in the markets into October 3.

So now, this past week, we had the Nasdaq 100 positive/negative number way up to 3.43 this past Wednesday. That was followed by three very low numbers of 1.75, 2.07 and 1.80 for this past Thursday, Friday and Monday, with the high coming in on the last of those three low number days, Monday. So I was very curious today to see whether that number would jump back up above 3.00 in a single day today as it did back in September, which began that month's decline. And we certainly did. That number today was way, way up to 3.91, which I believe is the highest number we've had since the all-time high of 7.25 that we had on May 11.

Just something I noticed. We'll see if we do get that big drop commencing immediately. Whether we do or not, I still think we're playing out three peaks and domed house. Another trip down would just push back that up and down and up and down action of the pattern out a ways, which would in turn obviously push back that final high of the pattern. If I am correct about three peaks playing out, any coming probably large decline will be a buying opportunity. That is a large "if."

Rob