The Balloon Expands Some More

First I'll just mention for comic relief that the $200 million man did jump into the market today after being out for a couple weeks. Of course he jumped in on the wrong side, going half in on the negative side, and of course he got killed by this giant up day. I'm pretty sure he'll be out of that position tomorrow.

But in more important news, the numbers on the Nasdaq 100 continue to climb to numbers never seen before by me. Again, what I'm doing is dividing the larger number of the positive and negative funds by the smaller number. In the case of the Nasdaq 100, this number is almost always positive except at final important lows.

I'll mention again, short term, the final high number of comparing positive to negative generally comes after the final high. In other words, we have the high, then a decline, then we start up again, and that's when people really jump on the bandwagon. Short-term stuff frequently matches up with longer-term stuff.

What has happened longer term is we had our final market high in 2007, with a positive/negative reading at that time of "only" 2.69. Then we had our decline. Now we've climbed back up, forming our long-term right shoulder, and, just like short-term stuff, the numbers are jumping off the charts as people anticipate a climb back to the previous all-time highs and beyond. And so we form the head and shoulders, while the actual high positive/negative number actually comes in on the right shoulder.

So here are the rather amazing numbers in the Nasdaq 100 for the last two weeks:

3.78, 3.44, 4.02, 3.94, 3.94, 4.20*, 3.86, 4.40*, 4.56*, 4.84*

where the asterisk denotes a new all-time high number that I've ever seen.

And I'll just keep saying it. I can definitely say we are at or within days of a very important high. I can't use these numbers to tell you just how important. I can say that once we start down, we will continue down long term until we reach a negative enough number to stop it, which I'm assuming will be a red number. But with us perched on the right shoulder of the long-term head and shoulders that has run from 2000 to the present, looking down into the abyss, we most definitely could be about to start the largest move down in stock market history.

I will say that we do usually get some strong up-and-down action at important highs. Any day here could be the final high. But what I'm looking for is a strong move down of a day or two, then a just as strong move back up to higher highs, and I suspect that will be the final high, although we may come down and try to get up again. All of the above forming a head and shoulders. But again, any day here could be it.

Rob