Inflection Point Next Couple Days

I still believe we are at or very near a very important high which will lead to a strong decline lasting at least a few months. We could have seen that high in early November, or we might power up here to one more final high. I think the next couple market days, meaning Monday and Tuesday, will tell the tale. If we're going to power up to a final high, I think that has to commence immediately. Any kind of down days, looking more at the final numbers for the day than the intraday stuff, will make me believe the final high is in. My own guess, just for fun, is that 60% chance we've seen the final high, 40% chance we'll rally up to one more final high.

I will note that at the final all-time high back in 2007, most of the market reached its final high, but the Nasdaq 100 kept going up for like a week while the rest of the market started down. So I'm curious to see if something like that happens here. If not the Nasdaq 100 stepping out from the others, maybe the Russell 2000.

I will also note that the $200 million man appears to be out of the market for nearly two weeks now. I thought it was very interesting that we had the large down day this past Tuesday on a day when there was no movement really all through my numbers. That makes me think something is up, either we're about to shoot up or down. That's just something I've noticed in the past. We'll see if it applies here.

The all-important Nasdaq 100 numbers got down as low as 2.75 last week Friday. The numbers since then:

2.75, 3.22, 3.37, 4.42, 4.00

So it didn't take long for this relative volume number to get back up over four times the money on the positive side versus money on the negative side, which would be the highest number I've ever seen, except that we went higher earlier this month, up to the highest ever number of 5.03 on November 5, within one market day of the final market high, so far.

As I said at the beginning, a strong decline most definitely has started or will soon start. The big problem is the potential for this decline to be one of the largest steps down in history, thanks to it being what some people affectionately call the "third wave down," which could try to undo decades of growth in the stock market real quickly. That potential is most definitely there. Most definitely.

Rob