The final piece of the topping puzzle could be falling into place today, as the S&P 500 did have more money on the positive side than the negative side today without the assistance of the $200 million man. The numbers for the S&P 500 so far this week:
Monday: 106.47 positive/129.85 negative
Tuesday: 108.68/130.20
Wednesday: 122.03/119.61
Before I even saw these numbers today, I was thinking to myself how I was going to write in my blog that I really had to see the S&P 500 number go positive before we have that final high. And now it has gone positive. And I don't think the $200 million man is involved here at all, unless he has had a long-term position on the down side that he has suddenly moved to the up side. But still, I think today's numbers represents longer-term money, not the usual $200 million man moving around daily stuff.
So maybe another week or two as the S&P 500 numbers dance on the positive side? Everything else I would look at is in place. We have the most important Nasdaq 100 at numbers higher than I've ever seen before. We have the Dow hitting its highest positive/negative numbers for the year this past week at 1.48, this in a set of funds there there is almost always more money on the negative side than the positive, for whatever reason. We have the Russell 2000 at its highest positive/negative number for the year of 2.96 this past week, this in a set of funds where more money is usually on the negative side.
So my best guess is one final run-up as the year starts, but then that's it. Probably a couple weeks. But I could be wrong. We could reach that final high any day.
Rob
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Sunday, December 26, 2010
No Change in My Position
As we continue to drift up, you might think I'm rethinking my position that we are at or near a very, very important top. Nope. I've watched these numbers for too long. We are either there right now, or we might be going up still further for another week or two or more. There is still one thing that makes me think we need to go up more before we reach that final top, and that is the still negative overall tone in the S&P 500, home of the $200 million man, who only seems to be moving around about $70 million these days.
The positive/negative numbers for the past week in the S&P 500:
Monday, 12/20: 103.59/127.07
Tuesday, 12/21: 106.05/182.08
Wednesday, 12/22: 104.10/186.67
Thursday, 12/23: 173.65/116.87
So you can see he was on the negative side on Tuesday and Wednesday and then switched to the positive side on Thursday. But if you take his money away, there still seems to be more money on the negative side than the positive, like on Monday. And I still think it's likely that the $200 million man parked some money on the negative side several months back, and he has been getting out of some of that position in the last couple weeks, but he's still there. I'm just speculating, but it does seem like there has to be more money on the positive side than on the negative before we reach that major top. And I don't mean like on Thursday, where the $200MM has obviously moved about $70 million to the positive side.
Everything else says we're there at the top. The Nasdaq 100 keeps cruising along at multiples way higher than anything I've ever seen before. It went above 5.00 again this past week. The Nasdaq 100 numbers for the past two weeks, this number being the positive money divided by the negative money equals:
5.01, 5.55***, 5.56***, 3.97, 4.65, 4.28, 5.44, 4.47, 4.52
With 5.55 and 5.56 being the highest numbers ever. But we came close again this past week.
I don't mention the Dow and Russell numbers much because they're not as consistent, but I do watch them. And the Dow, which is usually a negative number, has been going in and out of positive territory the past several weeks. And the Russell, also usually negative, has been positive for a couple weeks now, reaching its highest number of the year this past Wednesday of 2.96, with the previous high being 2.71, which happened on April 22, which was within a day or two of the previous important high in the stock market.
So except for the S&P 500 numbers, everything says we're there. I could be wrong, but I do think that number has to go solidly positive before we reach that high. So I think a little more on the up side. But since we're already at record volume multiple numbers, and since we are still perched on that right shoulder of the giant head and shoulders stretching from 2000 to the present, any more movement up just makes a crash scenario more likely, I think. But we'll see what happens. The first of the year is obviously a very interesting time because so many people make once-a-year decisions on their 401(k) money. That could also include the $200 million man.
Rob
The positive/negative numbers for the past week in the S&P 500:
Monday, 12/20: 103.59/127.07
Tuesday, 12/21: 106.05/182.08
Wednesday, 12/22: 104.10/186.67
Thursday, 12/23: 173.65/116.87
So you can see he was on the negative side on Tuesday and Wednesday and then switched to the positive side on Thursday. But if you take his money away, there still seems to be more money on the negative side than the positive, like on Monday. And I still think it's likely that the $200 million man parked some money on the negative side several months back, and he has been getting out of some of that position in the last couple weeks, but he's still there. I'm just speculating, but it does seem like there has to be more money on the positive side than on the negative before we reach that major top. And I don't mean like on Thursday, where the $200MM has obviously moved about $70 million to the positive side.
Everything else says we're there at the top. The Nasdaq 100 keeps cruising along at multiples way higher than anything I've ever seen before. It went above 5.00 again this past week. The Nasdaq 100 numbers for the past two weeks, this number being the positive money divided by the negative money equals:
5.01, 5.55***, 5.56***, 3.97, 4.65, 4.28, 5.44, 4.47, 4.52
With 5.55 and 5.56 being the highest numbers ever. But we came close again this past week.
I don't mention the Dow and Russell numbers much because they're not as consistent, but I do watch them. And the Dow, which is usually a negative number, has been going in and out of positive territory the past several weeks. And the Russell, also usually negative, has been positive for a couple weeks now, reaching its highest number of the year this past Wednesday of 2.96, with the previous high being 2.71, which happened on April 22, which was within a day or two of the previous important high in the stock market.
So except for the S&P 500 numbers, everything says we're there. I could be wrong, but I do think that number has to go solidly positive before we reach that high. So I think a little more on the up side. But since we're already at record volume multiple numbers, and since we are still perched on that right shoulder of the giant head and shoulders stretching from 2000 to the present, any more movement up just makes a crash scenario more likely, I think. But we'll see what happens. The first of the year is obviously a very interesting time because so many people make once-a-year decisions on their 401(k) money. That could also include the $200 million man.
Rob
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Are We There Yet?
What, we're still going up?? Gee, everything sounds so wonderful. I guess I must be totally wrong about everything. Actually, I remain totally confident that I am totally correct, even though this balloon is taking longer to explode than I figured. And the fact that it's going on so long I think increases the odds that the next move down will be a super-large move down.
The all-important Nasdaq 100 number has climbed to a new high number, marching past the old high of 5.03 back on November 5. Again, this is taking the volume number of the money in the fund that tracks the movement of the Nasdaq 100 times two on the positive side and dividing it by the money that's in the inverse Nasdaq 100 fund. So it's money on the positive side versus money on the negative side. What I have found is that the stock market moves up on doubt, usually, except when it's in topping mode as it is now. This number was at 2.69 when we had the market high in 2007. It climbed up to even high numbers at the two other important highs we had this year, up around 4.10 both times. And now it's gone completely bonkers on this third time up.
The numbers for the past two weeks for the Nasdaq 100 (I missed the volume number on 12/10):
3.96, 4.55, 4.49, 4.65, ?, 5.01, 5.55***, 5.56***, 3.97, 4.65
Where the asterisks denote a new all-time high number, ever, that I've been watching these numbers, which goes back to the early 2000s.
One thing that makes me think we still have a little more to go is the S&P 500 numbers, which, when you take away the short-term movements of the $200 million man, remain slightly negative. And I still think part of the money that has remain parked on the negative side has been a longer-term move by the $200 million man, where I think he parked maybe half his money on the negative side a couple months ago and now he's finally starting to throw in the towel.
The positive/negative numbers for the S&P 500 for the past two weeks:
Monday, 12/6: 81.74/208.27 ($200 MM obviously on the negative side)
Tuesday, 12/7: 79.87/141.32 (and he gets out of that negative position)
Wednesday, 12/8: 79.13/146.11
Thursday, 12/9: 78.49/121.60 (someone is getting out of their negative position a little, probably the $200MM)
Friday, 12/10: (Forgot to get volume data!)
Monday, 12/13: 82.87/178.89 (he jumps back in on the negative side, but we keep going up)
Tuesday, 12/14: 141.21/117.10 (now he jumps to the positive side, and he actually wins a little here as we continue up ... he only wins when we're in topping mode)
Wednesday, 12/15: 160.52/114.09 (still more positive, and we do finally have a down day)
Thursday, 12/16: 100.30/114.11 (now he's totally out with his short-term money, but I still suspect that's him keeping the negative money larger than the positive money, since the entire rest of the market, everything I watch, is extremely positive, although he is slowly but surely throwing in the towel)
Friday, 12/17: 100.97/126.30 (more negative)
So these S&P 500 numbers make me think there might be some more "crashing up" before we reach that final high. Or maybe not. We could certainly be at that high right now. As I say, I think the market has to extinguish this guy on the negative side before we get the final high.
We could get something on Monday that would probably knock this guy out of the negative position once and for all. I don't talk about it much, but I do also watch the movement of the biotech ... I'm forgetting the word, where they take all the biotech stocks and track the movement of that number. Anyway, biotech seems to frequently presage what's going to happen in the rest of the market by a day or two. Frequently, certainly not always. And on Friday, biotech was up over 7% in a single day. So don't be surprised if the market as a whole has a gargantuan up day on Monday, 12/20. Or the message could be that biotech just had to get to a new high for the year, which it did with that giant up day, and that's it, end of up story.
I still believe you should be totally out of the stock market. And I still believe I can tell you when to get back in. It will be when that Nasdaq 100 number finally goes negative, and then some.
Rob
The all-important Nasdaq 100 number has climbed to a new high number, marching past the old high of 5.03 back on November 5. Again, this is taking the volume number of the money in the fund that tracks the movement of the Nasdaq 100 times two on the positive side and dividing it by the money that's in the inverse Nasdaq 100 fund. So it's money on the positive side versus money on the negative side. What I have found is that the stock market moves up on doubt, usually, except when it's in topping mode as it is now. This number was at 2.69 when we had the market high in 2007. It climbed up to even high numbers at the two other important highs we had this year, up around 4.10 both times. And now it's gone completely bonkers on this third time up.
The numbers for the past two weeks for the Nasdaq 100 (I missed the volume number on 12/10):
3.96, 4.55, 4.49, 4.65, ?, 5.01, 5.55***, 5.56***, 3.97, 4.65
Where the asterisks denote a new all-time high number, ever, that I've been watching these numbers, which goes back to the early 2000s.
One thing that makes me think we still have a little more to go is the S&P 500 numbers, which, when you take away the short-term movements of the $200 million man, remain slightly negative. And I still think part of the money that has remain parked on the negative side has been a longer-term move by the $200 million man, where I think he parked maybe half his money on the negative side a couple months ago and now he's finally starting to throw in the towel.
The positive/negative numbers for the S&P 500 for the past two weeks:
Monday, 12/6: 81.74/208.27 ($200 MM obviously on the negative side)
Tuesday, 12/7: 79.87/141.32 (and he gets out of that negative position)
Wednesday, 12/8: 79.13/146.11
Thursday, 12/9: 78.49/121.60 (someone is getting out of their negative position a little, probably the $200MM)
Friday, 12/10: (Forgot to get volume data!)
Monday, 12/13: 82.87/178.89 (he jumps back in on the negative side, but we keep going up)
Tuesday, 12/14: 141.21/117.10 (now he jumps to the positive side, and he actually wins a little here as we continue up ... he only wins when we're in topping mode)
Wednesday, 12/15: 160.52/114.09 (still more positive, and we do finally have a down day)
Thursday, 12/16: 100.30/114.11 (now he's totally out with his short-term money, but I still suspect that's him keeping the negative money larger than the positive money, since the entire rest of the market, everything I watch, is extremely positive, although he is slowly but surely throwing in the towel)
Friday, 12/17: 100.97/126.30 (more negative)
So these S&P 500 numbers make me think there might be some more "crashing up" before we reach that final high. Or maybe not. We could certainly be at that high right now. As I say, I think the market has to extinguish this guy on the negative side before we get the final high.
We could get something on Monday that would probably knock this guy out of the negative position once and for all. I don't talk about it much, but I do also watch the movement of the biotech ... I'm forgetting the word, where they take all the biotech stocks and track the movement of that number. Anyway, biotech seems to frequently presage what's going to happen in the rest of the market by a day or two. Frequently, certainly not always. And on Friday, biotech was up over 7% in a single day. So don't be surprised if the market as a whole has a gargantuan up day on Monday, 12/20. Or the message could be that biotech just had to get to a new high for the year, which it did with that giant up day, and that's it, end of up story.
I still believe you should be totally out of the stock market. And I still believe I can tell you when to get back in. It will be when that Nasdaq 100 number finally goes negative, and then some.
Rob
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Another Inflection Point
A few days ago I was saying we were at an inflection point, and we slipped by that one to the up side. We're kind of on the same inflection point here in that most of the market has rallied up almost exactly, eerily, to its previous high for the year, which for most of the market was in early November. The Nasdaq 100 has gone slightly higher than its previous high. The positive/negative number for the Nasdaq 100, after reaching its all-time high that I've ever seen of 5.03 on November 5, did drop after that as we had a bit of a decline that went on for a few days, but now is getting back up near that record high again.
The positive/negative numbers for the Nasdaq 100 since that record high on November 5 have been:
5.03, 4.76, 4.57, 4.87, 4.38, 4.58, 4.45, 3.79, 3.66, 3.34, 2.75, 3.22, 3.37, 4.42, 4.00, 4.12, 4.57, 3.93, 4.41, 4.54
So this could be it, that November 5-ish was the high, we rallied back up, and now most of the market will head down. Or, just as likely, we go spurting up here for one final very strong rally of a week or two to really kill those who are shorting the market and get them out so then the market can go down. I had said earlier I thought it was a 60% chance that the high came in on November 5. I'll lower that to 50% chance that the high is in, 50% chance for one more strong rally of a week or two. The reason I have increased the chances for another rally is the numbers on the S&P 500 are still fairly negative, although the negative money did go down a bit. The numbers for the past week:
Monday: 74.28 positive/173.28 negative
Tuesday: 169.90/171.25
Wednesday: 89.44/131.95
Thursday: 96.29/130.75
Friday: 79.72/130.45
So you can see the money on the negative side was in the low 170s, as it had been for several weeks, staying almost exactly the same. Then it falls to the low 130s on Wednesday and stays almost exactly at the same number for Thursday and Friday. I had mentioned before that I am wondering more and more whether the $200 million man didn't park half of his money on the negative side and then played with the other half positive or negative, whichever he wanted to lose at. I remember telling Jeri back near the low in July that I felt like parking some of my money on the negative side because I know where all of this is going to end up. Fortunately I didn't do that. But that might be exactly what the $200 million man did. If so, he finally started to crack on that idea this past week. And also if so, I really think the market needs to get totally rid of him on the down side before it can move down like it wants to. So that's why I suspect one more strong spurt up, designed to get rid of this guy and those like him. On the other hand, as I said, it is ominous that we have rallied almost exactly to recent highs, which means this could be it right here. So that's why I say 50/50 at this inflection point.
But either way, I am not even a teeny bit changing my position that we are at or near a very important high, which will lead to a decline lasting quite a while, at least several months. And the possibility will never go away that we are at the jumping off point for the worst economic decline in history. That is based simply on the head-and-shoulders pattern stretching from 2000 to the present. But then to see the positive/negative numbers go up to numbers almost twice what we saw at the highs in 2007 makes me think that horrible possibility is more likely. You've been warned.
Rob
The positive/negative numbers for the Nasdaq 100 since that record high on November 5 have been:
5.03, 4.76, 4.57, 4.87, 4.38, 4.58, 4.45, 3.79, 3.66, 3.34, 2.75, 3.22, 3.37, 4.42, 4.00, 4.12, 4.57, 3.93, 4.41, 4.54
So this could be it, that November 5-ish was the high, we rallied back up, and now most of the market will head down. Or, just as likely, we go spurting up here for one final very strong rally of a week or two to really kill those who are shorting the market and get them out so then the market can go down. I had said earlier I thought it was a 60% chance that the high came in on November 5. I'll lower that to 50% chance that the high is in, 50% chance for one more strong rally of a week or two. The reason I have increased the chances for another rally is the numbers on the S&P 500 are still fairly negative, although the negative money did go down a bit. The numbers for the past week:
Monday: 74.28 positive/173.28 negative
Tuesday: 169.90/171.25
Wednesday: 89.44/131.95
Thursday: 96.29/130.75
Friday: 79.72/130.45
So you can see the money on the negative side was in the low 170s, as it had been for several weeks, staying almost exactly the same. Then it falls to the low 130s on Wednesday and stays almost exactly at the same number for Thursday and Friday. I had mentioned before that I am wondering more and more whether the $200 million man didn't park half of his money on the negative side and then played with the other half positive or negative, whichever he wanted to lose at. I remember telling Jeri back near the low in July that I felt like parking some of my money on the negative side because I know where all of this is going to end up. Fortunately I didn't do that. But that might be exactly what the $200 million man did. If so, he finally started to crack on that idea this past week. And also if so, I really think the market needs to get totally rid of him on the down side before it can move down like it wants to. So that's why I suspect one more strong spurt up, designed to get rid of this guy and those like him. On the other hand, as I said, it is ominous that we have rallied almost exactly to recent highs, which means this could be it right here. So that's why I say 50/50 at this inflection point.
But either way, I am not even a teeny bit changing my position that we are at or near a very important high, which will lead to a decline lasting quite a while, at least several months. And the possibility will never go away that we are at the jumping off point for the worst economic decline in history. That is based simply on the head-and-shoulders pattern stretching from 2000 to the present. But then to see the positive/negative numbers go up to numbers almost twice what we saw at the highs in 2007 makes me think that horrible possibility is more likely. You've been warned.
Rob
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