The final piece of the topping puzzle could be falling into place today, as the S&P 500 did have more money on the positive side than the negative side today without the assistance of the $200 million man. The numbers for the S&P 500 so far this week:
Monday: 106.47 positive/129.85 negative
Tuesday: 108.68/130.20
Wednesday: 122.03/119.61
Before I even saw these numbers today, I was thinking to myself how I was going to write in my blog that I really had to see the S&P 500 number go positive before we have that final high. And now it has gone positive. And I don't think the $200 million man is involved here at all, unless he has had a long-term position on the down side that he has suddenly moved to the up side. But still, I think today's numbers represents longer-term money, not the usual $200 million man moving around daily stuff.
So maybe another week or two as the S&P 500 numbers dance on the positive side? Everything else I would look at is in place. We have the most important Nasdaq 100 at numbers higher than I've ever seen before. We have the Dow hitting its highest positive/negative numbers for the year this past week at 1.48, this in a set of funds there there is almost always more money on the negative side than the positive, for whatever reason. We have the Russell 2000 at its highest positive/negative number for the year of 2.96 this past week, this in a set of funds where more money is usually on the negative side.
So my best guess is one final run-up as the year starts, but then that's it. Probably a couple weeks. But I could be wrong. We could reach that final high any day.
Rob
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