No Change in My Position

As we continue to drift up, you might think I'm rethinking my position that we are at or near a very, very important top. Nope. I've watched these numbers for too long. We are either there right now, or we might be going up still further for another week or two or more. There is still one thing that makes me think we need to go up more before we reach that final top, and that is the still negative overall tone in the S&P 500, home of the $200 million man, who only seems to be moving around about $70 million these days.

The positive/negative numbers for the past week in the S&P 500:

Monday, 12/20: 103.59/127.07

Tuesday, 12/21: 106.05/182.08

Wednesday, 12/22: 104.10/186.67

Thursday, 12/23: 173.65/116.87

So you can see he was on the negative side on Tuesday and Wednesday and then switched to the positive side on Thursday. But if you take his money away, there still seems to be more money on the negative side than the positive, like on Monday. And I still think it's likely that the $200 million man parked some money on the negative side several months back, and he has been getting out of some of that position in the last couple weeks, but he's still there. I'm just speculating, but it does seem like there has to be more money on the positive side than on the negative before we reach that major top. And I don't mean like on Thursday, where the $200MM has obviously moved about $70 million to the positive side.

Everything else says we're there at the top. The Nasdaq 100 keeps cruising along at multiples way higher than anything I've ever seen before. It went above 5.00 again this past week. The Nasdaq 100 numbers for the past two weeks, this number being the positive money divided by the negative money equals:

5.01, 5.55***, 5.56***, 3.97, 4.65, 4.28, 5.44, 4.47, 4.52

With 5.55 and 5.56 being the highest numbers ever. But we came close again this past week.

I don't mention the Dow and Russell numbers much because they're not as consistent, but I do watch them. And the Dow, which is usually a negative number, has been going in and out of positive territory the past several weeks. And the Russell, also usually negative, has been positive for a couple weeks now, reaching its highest number of the year this past Wednesday of 2.96, with the previous high being 2.71, which happened on April 22, which was within a day or two of the previous important high in the stock market.

So except for the S&P 500 numbers, everything says we're there. I could be wrong, but I do think that number has to go solidly positive before we reach that high. So I think a little more on the up side. But since we're already at record volume multiple numbers, and since we are still perched on that right shoulder of the giant head and shoulders stretching from 2000 to the present, any more movement up just makes a crash scenario more likely, I think. But we'll see what happens. The first of the year is obviously a very interesting time because so many people make once-a-year decisions on their 401(k) money. That could also include the $200 million man.

Rob