Still Some More Upside?

Although I think it's amazing how long this topping pattern is taking to play out, my best guess is that there is still a little further to go on the upside, although I certainly could be wrong and the major move down could start at any time. But I still think the numbers on the negative side for the S&P 500 have to go down some before that final high comes.

The numbers in the Nasdaq 100 remain at record levels, way, way above anything I've ever seen. But I just think there is enough of an undercurrent of doubt that we continue to levitate higher.

The numbers for the past two weeks in the Nasdaq 100 (I missed a couple because I was back in Michigan for a week):

4.26, 4.90, 4.61, ?, 4.05, ?, 5.15, 5.14, 5.53, 5.48

So staying above 5.00 for the last four market days, where 5.56 was the highest ever seen, that coming on December 15, and now we're right there again. Remember, this is dividing the money on the positive side by money on the negative side. Keep in mind that the highest I had ever seen at that time was 2.69 at the high in 2007, and now we had highs up to 4.10 twice earlier in 2010, and now still higher numbers, way beyond anything I've ever seen.

However, the numbers on the negative side of the S&P 500 keep hanging in there. The S&P 500 numbers for the past two weeks:

12/27: 106.47/129.85

12/28: 108.68/130.20

12/29: 122.03/119.61

12/30: ??

12/31: 169.19/126.60

1/3: ??

1/4: 170.63/128.20

1/5: 110.38/133.74

1/6: 155.28/126.32

1/7: 165.07/118.16

So you can see the $200 million man, playing with a much smaller amount at this time, jumping in and out on the positive side. But the negative money remains fairly constant at a fairly high negative number. I'm GUESSING that that number has to fall below 100.0 before the high comes in.

And speaking of the actual numbers, I have wondered at times if what we need to see before we get the final high is the actual number on the positive side for the Nasdaq 100 reaching the same numbers it reached at the highs in 2007. Although the multiple of positive vs. negative money is by far the highest I've ever seen, we are not yet up to the highest numbers I've seen just on the positive side, which happened at that 2007 high. First we reached up into the mid- to upper 200's, which is where we are now, holding steady around 240 to 250 (which I believe is millions), then it jumped up into the 300's and stayed there maybe a week, and then there was one final crazy day where it jumped all the way to 500 for just one day, and that came at or near the final high. So maybe we have to go through that process before we reach this very, very important high. I think it's unlikely but possible and something to watch for.

Rob