Possible Top Clue

Still new historically high multiples of positive/negative in the Nasdaq 100 this past week. Those numbers for the past two weeks:

5.43, 5.81***, 5.60, 3.95, 3.86, 5.22, 6.45***, 5.91, 5.56

Where the triple asterisk refers to this number being the highest ever. I've watched these numbers for a long time, nearly a decade, and these are the most incredible numbers I've ever seen. Now if we have the greatest drop of all time, I say this is why. No fear.

There is one thing that happened this past week that could indicate we've reached the final top, and that is that much of the market, particularly the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000, started down pretty strongly, while the Dow climbed to still higher highs at the same time. This is similar to what happened at the final high in 2007, although in that case it was the Nasdaq 100 that continued up while the rest of the market turned down. So I find that interesting.

The S&P 500 numbers are about where they have been for the past couple weeks. No decrease in the negative money that I still think would come at the final high. So that makes me think there could be still more to go on the upside notwithstanding the incredibly high positive/negative multiples and the Dow continuing up while the rest of the market turns down.

This is all very sad to see. I saw that head-and-shoulders topping pattern over the last ten years in the Dow a while ago and couldn't really see at that time what could lead to a monster drop in the stock market. That was months ago when I first saw that. But now that reason has certainly developed, in spades, as people have jumped on the positive bandwagon relative to the negative money in unprecedented levels.

If the Dow continues up while the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 and others continue down, look for the Dow to have an unbelievably large down day sometime in the next week or two, which would mark the final high in the Dow.

Rob