I'm thinking more and more that this rally has more to go before that final top to end all final tops. The $200 million man jumped in on the negative side today, and we had a nice up day. We won't be going down with him on the negative side, I don't believe. The S&P numbers for this week:
Monday: 118.72/97.54
Tuesday: 175.65/94.64
Wednesday: 111.92/155.57
The Nasdaq 100 numbers for this week (I'll show both positive and negative for a change, to show you where we are in terms of actual numbers):
Monday: 237.34/46.95
Tuesday: 239.01/42.86
Wednesday: 245.37/42.88
If you divide those numbers out for the three days, you get:
5.06, 5.58, 5.72
As I keep saying, those are numbers I've never seen before as far as the number you get when you divide it out. Since this is beyond anything I've ever seen before, who knows how high the numbers will go before we reach that final top. The record, set last week, was 6.45. And as I also said before, I'm thinking more and more that we have to go to a new all-time high in the Dow, whatever that may be, before any remaining doubters will give up and hop on board. This could take months, or it could end tomorrow.
Rob
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Floating Along
For now, the market just keeps floating along. It is entirely possible that we had our final high last week Tuesday in most of the market, one day before the all-time high positive multiple in the Nasdaq 100 of 6.45. That's six and a half times as much money on the positive side as on the negative side. The Dow has continued to higher highs. But for much of the market, we had a high on the 18th and then a pretty good drop for a few days, and now we've come back a little.
My best GUESS, just for fun, is that we have not seen the final high. I still think the S&P 500 numbers have to get less negative. The positive/negative numbers on the S&P 500 for last week and so far this week:
Tuesday, 1/18: 85.72/105.84
Wednesday, 1/19: 157.77/93.91
Thursday, 1/20: 160.28/97.71
Friday, 1/21: 97.08/98.06
Monday, 1/24: 118.72/97.54
Tuesday, 1/25: 175.65/94.64
So you can see the $200 million man jumping in and out a few times on the positive side. He was in again today (Tuesday) and we still managed to break even basically after being down most of the day. Before we got into topping mode a few months ago, a move to the positive side by the $200 million man like this would have yielded a strong down day, or at least a mild down day. Not in topping mode. You can see the negative numbers staying pretty steady, mostly in the nineties. But I still strongly suspect that negative number needs to get smaller and stay smaller before the final top.
The Nasdaq 100 multiple number for the past week and so far this week:
5.22, 6.45***, 5.91, 5.56, 5.06, 5.58
So it went down a little bit during the three down days for the Nasdaq 100, but still outrageously high, and now it's coming back. Again, that could have been it.
Further thoughts on the EndofAmerica36 web story:
Weird how this guy mentions things I've been talking about, such as riots on the streets, federal troops being used to quell riots, banks closing left and right, credit cards not working. But we come at it in a slightly different way. It's the old chicken before the egg thing again.
His take seems to be that horrible times are coming because of the debt we have built up, which is so high we can't even keep up with the interest payments anymore. And I guess any stock market crash would be a result of these financial problems.
My take is that the stock market rules. The stock market does its thing, which is based on human behavior patterns, not on financials, and the economic world follows. Things seem to be going fine right now in the financial world as the stock market keeps going up from its lows last summer, right? Well, we have all that debt right now. Why no problems now? He was saying it's because the dollar is still the world's currency. I'm saying as soon as the market starts down, we will have plenty of economic problems, especially since so many governmental entities and so many people are heavily invested in the stock market.
So I'm very curious to see if that was the high last week in most of the market, except for the Dow, or whether there is more upside, even after that astounding reading of 6.45 last week Tuesday in the Nasdaq 100.
As far as the rioting in the streets and stuff, I do think that will come, but I'm not talking mass insurrection here. I'm saying many people will be very, very pissed off and will surely do some demonstrating about it, especially if they just lost all their money to a bank that closed and there's no federal insurance left to cover it. But we'll get through it. Just some very unpleasant times. Not the end of the world. And as Jerry Favors said, when we finally get to the bottom, it will be followed by probably the longest and strongest bull market of our lifetimes, lasting many, many years and probably decades. You can see why. When we reach bottom, it means that everybody has finally given up and gotten out, or nearly everybody. And they'll be saying they'll never get in the stock market again as long as they live. So of course that's when it will go up and up and up for years and years. Hang in there.
Rob
My best GUESS, just for fun, is that we have not seen the final high. I still think the S&P 500 numbers have to get less negative. The positive/negative numbers on the S&P 500 for last week and so far this week:
Tuesday, 1/18: 85.72/105.84
Wednesday, 1/19: 157.77/93.91
Thursday, 1/20: 160.28/97.71
Friday, 1/21: 97.08/98.06
Monday, 1/24: 118.72/97.54
Tuesday, 1/25: 175.65/94.64
So you can see the $200 million man jumping in and out a few times on the positive side. He was in again today (Tuesday) and we still managed to break even basically after being down most of the day. Before we got into topping mode a few months ago, a move to the positive side by the $200 million man like this would have yielded a strong down day, or at least a mild down day. Not in topping mode. You can see the negative numbers staying pretty steady, mostly in the nineties. But I still strongly suspect that negative number needs to get smaller and stay smaller before the final top.
The Nasdaq 100 multiple number for the past week and so far this week:
5.22, 6.45***, 5.91, 5.56, 5.06, 5.58
So it went down a little bit during the three down days for the Nasdaq 100, but still outrageously high, and now it's coming back. Again, that could have been it.
Further thoughts on the EndofAmerica36 web story:
Weird how this guy mentions things I've been talking about, such as riots on the streets, federal troops being used to quell riots, banks closing left and right, credit cards not working. But we come at it in a slightly different way. It's the old chicken before the egg thing again.
His take seems to be that horrible times are coming because of the debt we have built up, which is so high we can't even keep up with the interest payments anymore. And I guess any stock market crash would be a result of these financial problems.
My take is that the stock market rules. The stock market does its thing, which is based on human behavior patterns, not on financials, and the economic world follows. Things seem to be going fine right now in the financial world as the stock market keeps going up from its lows last summer, right? Well, we have all that debt right now. Why no problems now? He was saying it's because the dollar is still the world's currency. I'm saying as soon as the market starts down, we will have plenty of economic problems, especially since so many governmental entities and so many people are heavily invested in the stock market.
So I'm very curious to see if that was the high last week in most of the market, except for the Dow, or whether there is more upside, even after that astounding reading of 6.45 last week Tuesday in the Nasdaq 100.
As far as the rioting in the streets and stuff, I do think that will come, but I'm not talking mass insurrection here. I'm saying many people will be very, very pissed off and will surely do some demonstrating about it, especially if they just lost all their money to a bank that closed and there's no federal insurance left to cover it. But we'll get through it. Just some very unpleasant times. Not the end of the world. And as Jerry Favors said, when we finally get to the bottom, it will be followed by probably the longest and strongest bull market of our lifetimes, lasting many, many years and probably decades. You can see why. When we reach bottom, it means that everybody has finally given up and gotten out, or nearly everybody. And they'll be saying they'll never get in the stock market again as long as they live. So of course that's when it will go up and up and up for years and years. Hang in there.
Rob
Monday, January 24, 2011
Comments on "End of America 36"
I heard an ad on the radio today to check out something on the Internet at www.endofamerica36.com
I just finished listening to some of it. It was getting pretty long, and he was starting to bring in Obama, so I turned it off. But what I heard is certainly scary. And unfortunately it kind of lines up with what I'm seeing in this gigantic head and shoulders in the long-term Dow that could lead to a crash, which could lead to everybody and every governmental entity suddenly being in serious financial trouble, leading to chaos in the streets. I'm kind of embarrassed, but I'll admit it, this is the reason I'm not getting a new cat right now. Things could get unbelievably crazy.
But another thought occurred to me that I'll mention just for a chuckle. I have said to myself that the surest way to get the market to take off to the upside like we've never seen before is to have Obama come on TV to the nation and say, "My fellow Americans, we're in bad shape. In fact, we're in such bad shape that I have decided to invest on the short side so I can make money as the market goes down. And you all should do the same, and we'll all come out of this okay!"
Well, hopefully I have shown that the market goes the opposite of where the money goes, except in a topping mode like we have been for months now. So if millions of people suddenly go short, the market would of course go in the opposite direction and go up, up and away for decades! So maybe this guy at this website is secretly trying to do the one thing that could get us going up, which is create some serious doubt.
Unfortunately, there is very little doubt in the markets right now. Even with the gloom and doom talk that I've heard from a few places, the fact is that right now the market is at unprecedented positive levels. No fear at all. This is what I think will lead to a huge drop in the markets, which will lead to governmental entities that can't pay for anything, chaos.
I pray that I'm wrong, as I've said over and over.
Rob
I just finished listening to some of it. It was getting pretty long, and he was starting to bring in Obama, so I turned it off. But what I heard is certainly scary. And unfortunately it kind of lines up with what I'm seeing in this gigantic head and shoulders in the long-term Dow that could lead to a crash, which could lead to everybody and every governmental entity suddenly being in serious financial trouble, leading to chaos in the streets. I'm kind of embarrassed, but I'll admit it, this is the reason I'm not getting a new cat right now. Things could get unbelievably crazy.
But another thought occurred to me that I'll mention just for a chuckle. I have said to myself that the surest way to get the market to take off to the upside like we've never seen before is to have Obama come on TV to the nation and say, "My fellow Americans, we're in bad shape. In fact, we're in such bad shape that I have decided to invest on the short side so I can make money as the market goes down. And you all should do the same, and we'll all come out of this okay!"
Well, hopefully I have shown that the market goes the opposite of where the money goes, except in a topping mode like we have been for months now. So if millions of people suddenly go short, the market would of course go in the opposite direction and go up, up and away for decades! So maybe this guy at this website is secretly trying to do the one thing that could get us going up, which is create some serious doubt.
Unfortunately, there is very little doubt in the markets right now. Even with the gloom and doom talk that I've heard from a few places, the fact is that right now the market is at unprecedented positive levels. No fear at all. This is what I think will lead to a huge drop in the markets, which will lead to governmental entities that can't pay for anything, chaos.
I pray that I'm wrong, as I've said over and over.
Rob
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Possible Top Clue
Still new historically high multiples of positive/negative in the Nasdaq 100 this past week. Those numbers for the past two weeks:
5.43, 5.81***, 5.60, 3.95, 3.86, 5.22, 6.45***, 5.91, 5.56
Where the triple asterisk refers to this number being the highest ever. I've watched these numbers for a long time, nearly a decade, and these are the most incredible numbers I've ever seen. Now if we have the greatest drop of all time, I say this is why. No fear.
There is one thing that happened this past week that could indicate we've reached the final top, and that is that much of the market, particularly the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000, started down pretty strongly, while the Dow climbed to still higher highs at the same time. This is similar to what happened at the final high in 2007, although in that case it was the Nasdaq 100 that continued up while the rest of the market turned down. So I find that interesting.
The S&P 500 numbers are about where they have been for the past couple weeks. No decrease in the negative money that I still think would come at the final high. So that makes me think there could be still more to go on the upside notwithstanding the incredibly high positive/negative multiples and the Dow continuing up while the rest of the market turns down.
This is all very sad to see. I saw that head-and-shoulders topping pattern over the last ten years in the Dow a while ago and couldn't really see at that time what could lead to a monster drop in the stock market. That was months ago when I first saw that. But now that reason has certainly developed, in spades, as people have jumped on the positive bandwagon relative to the negative money in unprecedented levels.
If the Dow continues up while the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 and others continue down, look for the Dow to have an unbelievably large down day sometime in the next week or two, which would mark the final high in the Dow.
Rob
5.43, 5.81***, 5.60, 3.95, 3.86, 5.22, 6.45***, 5.91, 5.56
Where the triple asterisk refers to this number being the highest ever. I've watched these numbers for a long time, nearly a decade, and these are the most incredible numbers I've ever seen. Now if we have the greatest drop of all time, I say this is why. No fear.
There is one thing that happened this past week that could indicate we've reached the final top, and that is that much of the market, particularly the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000, started down pretty strongly, while the Dow climbed to still higher highs at the same time. This is similar to what happened at the final high in 2007, although in that case it was the Nasdaq 100 that continued up while the rest of the market turned down. So I find that interesting.
The S&P 500 numbers are about where they have been for the past couple weeks. No decrease in the negative money that I still think would come at the final high. So that makes me think there could be still more to go on the upside notwithstanding the incredibly high positive/negative multiples and the Dow continuing up while the rest of the market turns down.
This is all very sad to see. I saw that head-and-shoulders topping pattern over the last ten years in the Dow a while ago and couldn't really see at that time what could lead to a monster drop in the stock market. That was months ago when I first saw that. But now that reason has certainly developed, in spades, as people have jumped on the positive bandwagon relative to the negative money in unprecedented levels.
If the Dow continues up while the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 and others continue down, look for the Dow to have an unbelievably large down day sometime in the next week or two, which would mark the final high in the Dow.
Rob
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Still Looks Like Some More Upside
The most incredible topping pattern of all time continues. The Nasdaq 100 reached the highest all-time multiple of positive/negative on Tuesday of this past week, with 256.88 on the positive side versus 44.24 on the negative side, yielding a record multiple of 5.81.
The numbers for the Nasdaq 100 for 2011, except for January 3 which I didn't get:
5.15, 5.14, 5.53, 5.48, 5.43, 5.81, 5.60, 3.95, 3.86
You'd think that was positive enough to reach a major top, but I still think there is probably more to go on the upside. That's because I still think the S&P 500 numbers are still too negative for a major top. I could easily be wrong. That major top could occur any day. But here are the
S&P 500 numbers for the past week:
Monday: 149.58/123.51
Tuesday: 86.30/120.79
Wednesday: 87.12/102.22
Thursday: 159.46/91.41
Friday: 86.75/102.36
So you can see the $200 million man jumping in and out on the positive side. And there was a definite solid move down in the negative number on Wednesday. But that negative number was still above 100 on Friday, still definitely larger than the positive number without the $200 million man. So I still think this negative number has to drop and stay down before we reach the final high. But again, I stress, I'm speculating that we might have more upside to go. What I'm sure about is a major, major high is coming, maybe right now, maybe in a couple weeks, maybe even in a couple months.
I mentioned in my last post that perhaps we need to reach certain positive volume numbers in the Nasdaq 100 before the final high. I'll add another possibility, and that is that we need to go to a new all-time high in the Dow, whatever that is. That obviously would mean a shocking surge up here, but that is the one thing that would finally break the back of the long-termers on the down side. I'm just throwing this out as a thought that occurred to me. I think the chances are very, very low, simply because of how high the Nasdaq 100 multiple is right now, I can't imagine shooting up another couple thousand points. But the market does like to do what you can't imagine sometimes, that's for sure.
The way we're reaching such amazing multiples in the Nasdaq 100 sure seems to point to the mother of all economic collapses coming right up, not just your garden-variety big move down. But I'm just speculating again.
Rob
The numbers for the Nasdaq 100 for 2011, except for January 3 which I didn't get:
5.15, 5.14, 5.53, 5.48, 5.43, 5.81, 5.60, 3.95, 3.86
You'd think that was positive enough to reach a major top, but I still think there is probably more to go on the upside. That's because I still think the S&P 500 numbers are still too negative for a major top. I could easily be wrong. That major top could occur any day. But here are the
S&P 500 numbers for the past week:
Monday: 149.58/123.51
Tuesday: 86.30/120.79
Wednesday: 87.12/102.22
Thursday: 159.46/91.41
Friday: 86.75/102.36
So you can see the $200 million man jumping in and out on the positive side. And there was a definite solid move down in the negative number on Wednesday. But that negative number was still above 100 on Friday, still definitely larger than the positive number without the $200 million man. So I still think this negative number has to drop and stay down before we reach the final high. But again, I stress, I'm speculating that we might have more upside to go. What I'm sure about is a major, major high is coming, maybe right now, maybe in a couple weeks, maybe even in a couple months.
I mentioned in my last post that perhaps we need to reach certain positive volume numbers in the Nasdaq 100 before the final high. I'll add another possibility, and that is that we need to go to a new all-time high in the Dow, whatever that is. That obviously would mean a shocking surge up here, but that is the one thing that would finally break the back of the long-termers on the down side. I'm just throwing this out as a thought that occurred to me. I think the chances are very, very low, simply because of how high the Nasdaq 100 multiple is right now, I can't imagine shooting up another couple thousand points. But the market does like to do what you can't imagine sometimes, that's for sure.
The way we're reaching such amazing multiples in the Nasdaq 100 sure seems to point to the mother of all economic collapses coming right up, not just your garden-variety big move down. But I'm just speculating again.
Rob
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Still Some More Upside?
Although I think it's amazing how long this topping pattern is taking to play out, my best guess is that there is still a little further to go on the upside, although I certainly could be wrong and the major move down could start at any time. But I still think the numbers on the negative side for the S&P 500 have to go down some before that final high comes.
The numbers in the Nasdaq 100 remain at record levels, way, way above anything I've ever seen. But I just think there is enough of an undercurrent of doubt that we continue to levitate higher.
The numbers for the past two weeks in the Nasdaq 100 (I missed a couple because I was back in Michigan for a week):
4.26, 4.90, 4.61, ?, 4.05, ?, 5.15, 5.14, 5.53, 5.48
So staying above 5.00 for the last four market days, where 5.56 was the highest ever seen, that coming on December 15, and now we're right there again. Remember, this is dividing the money on the positive side by money on the negative side. Keep in mind that the highest I had ever seen at that time was 2.69 at the high in 2007, and now we had highs up to 4.10 twice earlier in 2010, and now still higher numbers, way beyond anything I've ever seen.
However, the numbers on the negative side of the S&P 500 keep hanging in there. The S&P 500 numbers for the past two weeks:
12/27: 106.47/129.85
12/28: 108.68/130.20
12/29: 122.03/119.61
12/30: ??
12/31: 169.19/126.60
1/3: ??
1/4: 170.63/128.20
1/5: 110.38/133.74
1/6: 155.28/126.32
1/7: 165.07/118.16
So you can see the $200 million man, playing with a much smaller amount at this time, jumping in and out on the positive side. But the negative money remains fairly constant at a fairly high negative number. I'm GUESSING that that number has to fall below 100.0 before the high comes in.
And speaking of the actual numbers, I have wondered at times if what we need to see before we get the final high is the actual number on the positive side for the Nasdaq 100 reaching the same numbers it reached at the highs in 2007. Although the multiple of positive vs. negative money is by far the highest I've ever seen, we are not yet up to the highest numbers I've seen just on the positive side, which happened at that 2007 high. First we reached up into the mid- to upper 200's, which is where we are now, holding steady around 240 to 250 (which I believe is millions), then it jumped up into the 300's and stayed there maybe a week, and then there was one final crazy day where it jumped all the way to 500 for just one day, and that came at or near the final high. So maybe we have to go through that process before we reach this very, very important high. I think it's unlikely but possible and something to watch for.
Rob
The numbers in the Nasdaq 100 remain at record levels, way, way above anything I've ever seen. But I just think there is enough of an undercurrent of doubt that we continue to levitate higher.
The numbers for the past two weeks in the Nasdaq 100 (I missed a couple because I was back in Michigan for a week):
4.26, 4.90, 4.61, ?, 4.05, ?, 5.15, 5.14, 5.53, 5.48
So staying above 5.00 for the last four market days, where 5.56 was the highest ever seen, that coming on December 15, and now we're right there again. Remember, this is dividing the money on the positive side by money on the negative side. Keep in mind that the highest I had ever seen at that time was 2.69 at the high in 2007, and now we had highs up to 4.10 twice earlier in 2010, and now still higher numbers, way beyond anything I've ever seen.
However, the numbers on the negative side of the S&P 500 keep hanging in there. The S&P 500 numbers for the past two weeks:
12/27: 106.47/129.85
12/28: 108.68/130.20
12/29: 122.03/119.61
12/30: ??
12/31: 169.19/126.60
1/3: ??
1/4: 170.63/128.20
1/5: 110.38/133.74
1/6: 155.28/126.32
1/7: 165.07/118.16
So you can see the $200 million man, playing with a much smaller amount at this time, jumping in and out on the positive side. But the negative money remains fairly constant at a fairly high negative number. I'm GUESSING that that number has to fall below 100.0 before the high comes in.
And speaking of the actual numbers, I have wondered at times if what we need to see before we get the final high is the actual number on the positive side for the Nasdaq 100 reaching the same numbers it reached at the highs in 2007. Although the multiple of positive vs. negative money is by far the highest I've ever seen, we are not yet up to the highest numbers I've seen just on the positive side, which happened at that 2007 high. First we reached up into the mid- to upper 200's, which is where we are now, holding steady around 240 to 250 (which I believe is millions), then it jumped up into the 300's and stayed there maybe a week, and then there was one final crazy day where it jumped all the way to 500 for just one day, and that came at or near the final high. So maybe we have to go through that process before we reach this very, very important high. I think it's unlikely but possible and something to watch for.
Rob
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