I've been watching these volume numbers closely for five or six years now, kind of noticing them for a few years before that. And I do believe that on Friday the Nasdaq 100 numbers got up to the highest number ever when you divide the positive volume by the negative volume. The positive/negative numbers on Friday were: 219.66/52.33. When you divide that out, you get 4.20. This is the most positive number I've ever seen, meaning there are more traders in on the positive side versus traders on the negative side than there has ever been in the last five or six years. This is why we are reaching a major top. It appears that this top is going to roughly coincide with the election. So no matter who wins in the election, when we start down, people will look around and see the top was around the same time as the election and say we're going down because of the election. Democrats will blame the Republicans, Republicans will blame the Democrats, Tea Partiers will blame Democrats and Republicans. I hope I'm showing that the true reason we are about to head down is because everyone has piled on on the positive side.
The Nasdaq 100 numbers for the past seven trading days:
2.59, 3.78, 3.44, 4.02, 3.94, 3.94, 4.20
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Nasdaq 100 Holds Steady at 3.94
The Nasdaq 100 numbers remained steady today, still most definitely in topping mode. The last ten market days, oldest to today's:
2.46, 2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78, 3.44, 4.02, 3.94, 3.94
And it crept up a little more today. Again, clear topping behavior. I can 100% guarantee you that we are at or near an important top. What will happen with my numbers at an important top is that the switch will be flipped, as I think of it. What I mean is, we will start down, and we will continue down until we reach whatever number it needs to reach, probably down 1.00 or into negative numbers. Obviously on the way down we will pass by the same numbers we passed by on the way up, such as numbers like 1.50, 2.50, or whatever. Before, those numbers enabled us to continue going up. Now, since the switch will have been flipped and we're going down, those same numbers will enable us to continue down. I hope that makes sense, but it probably doesn't.
Another thing I was wondering if it would happen here like it did at the top in 2007 is, in 2007 at the final high most of the market had its final high and started down while the Nasdaq 100, the traders' darling, continued up for maybe a week or a week and a half before it marked the beginning of the move down with a monster down day. While my gut feeling is we still have a week or two until the final top, that final top could be in the Nasdaq 100 alone, as I'll note that in the last three days, most of the market has been going down while the Nasdaq 100 has continued up each day to new highs for the year each day.
Again, we are at or within days of an important high. I can say that with absolute certainty. Whether it's the final high before a market collapse, I can't say. But it is a distinct possibility just because of where we are in the long-term picture.
Rob
2.46, 2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78, 3.44, 4.02, 3.94, 3.94
And it crept up a little more today. Again, clear topping behavior. I can 100% guarantee you that we are at or near an important top. What will happen with my numbers at an important top is that the switch will be flipped, as I think of it. What I mean is, we will start down, and we will continue down until we reach whatever number it needs to reach, probably down 1.00 or into negative numbers. Obviously on the way down we will pass by the same numbers we passed by on the way up, such as numbers like 1.50, 2.50, or whatever. Before, those numbers enabled us to continue going up. Now, since the switch will have been flipped and we're going down, those same numbers will enable us to continue down. I hope that makes sense, but it probably doesn't.
Another thing I was wondering if it would happen here like it did at the top in 2007 is, in 2007 at the final high most of the market had its final high and started down while the Nasdaq 100, the traders' darling, continued up for maybe a week or a week and a half before it marked the beginning of the move down with a monster down day. While my gut feeling is we still have a week or two until the final top, that final top could be in the Nasdaq 100 alone, as I'll note that in the last three days, most of the market has been going down while the Nasdaq 100 has continued up each day to new highs for the year each day.
Again, we are at or within days of an important high. I can say that with absolute certainty. Whether it's the final high before a market collapse, I can't say. But it is a distinct possibility just because of where we are in the long-term picture.
Rob
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Nasdaq Falls Back a Little
The Nasdaq 100 was slightly less positive today, but only slightly. The Nasdaq numbers for last week and so far this week:
2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78, 3.44, 4.02, 3.94
Again, I have to stress that the high could have already come in with numbers like this. However, in my humble opinion, which could certainly be wrong, I'm going to go by time and say there's still a week or two until the final high, probably two. Who knows, maybe this final epic high will go up to numbers we've never seen before, like up to 5.0 or more. Who knows. But time-wise, like I said, probably a week or two, just judging from what's happened in the past as far as the time from when we first went above 3.0 to the final high.
The $200 million man is still half-in on the positive side, which is not good short term.
If I were your financial advisor, I would have you totally out of the equities market right now. I don't care if we go a little higher in a final blow-off top. This is extremely dangerous territory. So if you got out, how would you get back in? The answer is, when we eventually start down, which will be soon, we will go down until the Nasdaq 100 number gets down to at least even money, and probably until it goes negative. So I think my numbers can tell you approximately when to get back in. And I believe this time the market has the general population trained to the point where it's going to stay in this time and not jump out, and down we go.
I hope I'm wrong.
Rob
2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78, 3.44, 4.02, 3.94
Again, I have to stress that the high could have already come in with numbers like this. However, in my humble opinion, which could certainly be wrong, I'm going to go by time and say there's still a week or two until the final high, probably two. Who knows, maybe this final epic high will go up to numbers we've never seen before, like up to 5.0 or more. Who knows. But time-wise, like I said, probably a week or two, just judging from what's happened in the past as far as the time from when we first went above 3.0 to the final high.
The $200 million man is still half-in on the positive side, which is not good short term.
If I were your financial advisor, I would have you totally out of the equities market right now. I don't care if we go a little higher in a final blow-off top. This is extremely dangerous territory. So if you got out, how would you get back in? The answer is, when we eventually start down, which will be soon, we will go down until the Nasdaq 100 number gets down to at least even money, and probably until it goes negative. So I think my numbers can tell you approximately when to get back in. And I believe this time the market has the general population trained to the point where it's going to stay in this time and not jump out, and down we go.
I hope I'm wrong.
Rob
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Hate to Tell You ... Nasdaq 100 Hits 4.02
Well, that was fast. The Nasdaq 100 numbers for today are:
210.87 on the positive side
52.44 on the negative side
which unfortunately equals 4.02 when you divide it out. I've been looking for a move above 4.0 to mark the high coming in, but this seems a bit quick to me, since we spent several weeks in the 3.0 to 4.0 range on the last couple important highs. I suspect there is a week or two left until the final high, but it's most definitely possible that we are at that high right now.
The $200 million man got out of his half-in on the down side position and moved to half-in on the positive side in the S&P 500, yielding a basically flat day today.
So as I've been saying, I can promise you an important high, either right now or within a week or two. The important high we had in mid-January led to a decline of one month to a low in mid-February. The important high we had in mid-April led to a decline of two and a half months to a low around July 1. So I'm sure this decline will last at least a month or two. But with where we are in the long-term head-and-shoulders pattern, which is poised on the right shoulder, looking down in the abyss, this is potentially one of the most important highs ever, coming right up. Or maybe not. Maybe it will just be another move down to the same general area and then yet another move up. I wouldn't count on it.
Rob
210.87 on the positive side
52.44 on the negative side
which unfortunately equals 4.02 when you divide it out. I've been looking for a move above 4.0 to mark the high coming in, but this seems a bit quick to me, since we spent several weeks in the 3.0 to 4.0 range on the last couple important highs. I suspect there is a week or two left until the final high, but it's most definitely possible that we are at that high right now.
The $200 million man got out of his half-in on the down side position and moved to half-in on the positive side in the S&P 500, yielding a basically flat day today.
So as I've been saying, I can promise you an important high, either right now or within a week or two. The important high we had in mid-January led to a decline of one month to a low in mid-February. The important high we had in mid-April led to a decline of two and a half months to a low around July 1. So I'm sure this decline will last at least a month or two. But with where we are in the long-term head-and-shoulders pattern, which is poised on the right shoulder, looking down in the abyss, this is potentially one of the most important highs ever, coming right up. Or maybe not. Maybe it will just be another move down to the same general area and then yet another move up. I wouldn't count on it.
Rob
Monday, October 25, 2010
He's In on the Down Side
I'm going to try my best to do this blog daily as we climb to this important high. We'll see if I'm able to. I would estimate two to three weeks to this important high. There is a distinct possibility that it's two to three weeks to one of the most important highs of our economic lives. We are looking for the Nasdaq 100 to go above 4.0, meaning there is four times as much money on the positive side as on the negative side. I believe that will mark the final high.
The Nasdaq numbers for the past week plus today:
2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78, 3.44
So it appears that the Nasdaq 100 is going to stay above 3.0, and it's still going up. This is absolutely classic topping behavior. What happened at the last two important highs was we got up over 3.0, and then it stayed above 3.0 for two to three weeks, finally getting up over 4.0, which came two days after the final high. I'm expecting the same pattern here since everything is happening exactly the same as the last two highs.
So when we start heading down, the headlines will all say that investors have lost confidence. It's actually the exact opposite of that, as I think my Nasdaq 100 numbers show. Everyone piled on, leaving no new buyers.
On the humorous side, the $200 million man continues to be almost always wrong. He has been out of the market the past couple weeks, except for one day, last Tuesday, where he jumped in on the positive side. Of course that was the only down day of the past week and a half for the S&P 500. Today he went half in on the negative side, and we had an up day, although not that big of an up day. I'll betcha we get that big up day in the next day or two if he stays in that position. If this guy ever starts winning on the up side, that's another topping sign, which may or may not happen here.
Rob
The Nasdaq numbers for the past week plus today:
2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78, 3.44
So it appears that the Nasdaq 100 is going to stay above 3.0, and it's still going up. This is absolutely classic topping behavior. What happened at the last two important highs was we got up over 3.0, and then it stayed above 3.0 for two to three weeks, finally getting up over 4.0, which came two days after the final high. I'm expecting the same pattern here since everything is happening exactly the same as the last two highs.
So when we start heading down, the headlines will all say that investors have lost confidence. It's actually the exact opposite of that, as I think my Nasdaq 100 numbers show. Everyone piled on, leaving no new buyers.
On the humorous side, the $200 million man continues to be almost always wrong. He has been out of the market the past couple weeks, except for one day, last Tuesday, where he jumped in on the positive side. Of course that was the only down day of the past week and a half for the S&P 500. Today he went half in on the negative side, and we had an up day, although not that big of an up day. I'll betcha we get that big up day in the next day or two if he stays in that position. If this guy ever starts winning on the up side, that's another topping sign, which may or may not happen here.
Rob
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Shocking Move by the Nasdaq 100
When I started this blog, I figured it would be mainly talking about the comical adventures of the $200 million man and probably not so much the Nasdaq 100 because the Nasdaq 100 numbers really only become relevant when you're coming to an important or an important low, and I didn't think those would come up too often. But as it turns out, we are most definitely coming to an important high, and it could be the most important high of our lives.
I've been looking to see if the Nasdaq 100 numbers would get up to 4 times the money on the positive side versus money on the negative side. That's where we got up to at the last two important highs. And I was also watching how we seemed to be doing a good job of retracing the market pattern that we traced out leading up to the final high of 2007. Continuing to trace out that pattern would put us at or near a high right now. The Nasdaq 100 numbers have been over 2.0 and staying there for several weeks now, but I was wondering if those numbers would start to approach 4.0 real quickly here. And they have, as of Friday. I was shocked to see the number go from 2.59 on Thursday all the way to 3.78 on Friday!! So we're basically there.
I usually just show the result of dividing the larger number, almost always positive, by the smaller number when talking about the Nasdaq 100 because that's what's really important, and there usually isn't big jumps in the numbers day to day. The numbers for the past week were:
2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78
I'll show you what the actual numbers were for the above numbers to show what a jump we had on Friday:
Monday: 149.85 on the positive side
70.25 on the negative side
Tuesday: 154.89/54.30 (some giving up on the short side)
Wednesday: 154.91/53.64
Thursday: 143.38/55.27
Friday: 203.63/53.94
As you can see, a tremendous jump on the positive side on Friday. I believe the reason for the surge of interest on the positive side is that the Nasdaq 100 reached new highs for the year last Friday and Monday, and that's just what a lot of people wait for to be convinced that a rally is for real, to go to new highs. So the market does whatever it takes to convince them.
The $200 million man has been mainly out of the market, allowing us to continue up. Our one large down day this past week was the one day he jumped in on the positive side, but then he jumped back out.
Based on how things went back in March and April when we were reaching the last important high, we probably still have two or three weeks to go before the final high. I'm saying that because back then we went over 3.0 and then it was several weeks before we went over 4.0, to the final high number of 4.06, which actually came two days AFTER the final high.
I didn't want to get into advice on this blog. But it's all so clear to me, I have to say that I think any of you reading this should sell every stock you own in the coming couple weeks. I can guarantee you a strong move down is coming. The real fear, why I would suggest selling all of your stocks, is that there is a very good chance that this is the final high before the incredible ugliness of the third wave down begins. As always, I hope and pray I look totally stupid on this.
Rob
I've been looking to see if the Nasdaq 100 numbers would get up to 4 times the money on the positive side versus money on the negative side. That's where we got up to at the last two important highs. And I was also watching how we seemed to be doing a good job of retracing the market pattern that we traced out leading up to the final high of 2007. Continuing to trace out that pattern would put us at or near a high right now. The Nasdaq 100 numbers have been over 2.0 and staying there for several weeks now, but I was wondering if those numbers would start to approach 4.0 real quickly here. And they have, as of Friday. I was shocked to see the number go from 2.59 on Thursday all the way to 3.78 on Friday!! So we're basically there.
I usually just show the result of dividing the larger number, almost always positive, by the smaller number when talking about the Nasdaq 100 because that's what's really important, and there usually isn't big jumps in the numbers day to day. The numbers for the past week were:
2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78
I'll show you what the actual numbers were for the above numbers to show what a jump we had on Friday:
Monday: 149.85 on the positive side
70.25 on the negative side
Tuesday: 154.89/54.30 (some giving up on the short side)
Wednesday: 154.91/53.64
Thursday: 143.38/55.27
Friday: 203.63/53.94
As you can see, a tremendous jump on the positive side on Friday. I believe the reason for the surge of interest on the positive side is that the Nasdaq 100 reached new highs for the year last Friday and Monday, and that's just what a lot of people wait for to be convinced that a rally is for real, to go to new highs. So the market does whatever it takes to convince them.
The $200 million man has been mainly out of the market, allowing us to continue up. Our one large down day this past week was the one day he jumped in on the positive side, but then he jumped back out.
Based on how things went back in March and April when we were reaching the last important high, we probably still have two or three weeks to go before the final high. I'm saying that because back then we went over 3.0 and then it was several weeks before we went over 4.0, to the final high number of 4.06, which actually came two days AFTER the final high.
I didn't want to get into advice on this blog. But it's all so clear to me, I have to say that I think any of you reading this should sell every stock you own in the coming couple weeks. I can guarantee you a strong move down is coming. The real fear, why I would suggest selling all of your stocks, is that there is a very good chance that this is the final high before the incredible ugliness of the third wave down begins. As always, I hope and pray I look totally stupid on this.
Rob
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Definitely in Topping Mode
I remain very concerned that we are coming to a final top, leading to some awful, awful economic times. I continue to hope I look like an idiot on this. First we have the incredibly horrible looking head-and-shoulders pattern that we have traced out over the last ten years. (See below.)
Just from I've learned about charting from Jerry Favors and others, if we start shooting down, we're probably going at least down to that row of up-and-down moves that happened around the '70s, when the Dow was anywhere from 575 to 1000.
So with that in mind, I'm watching out for a major top, mainly by watching my Nasdaq 100 fund numbers. And unfortunately, that major top is forming, pretty much no doubt about it. Remember, the numbers I will be talking about here is taking the larger number and dividing it by the smaller number to get a quotient. There is almost always more money on the up side than the down side with the Nasdaq 100 funds, so this number is almost always positive. When it gets above 2.0, you're into the danger zone short term, where you are likely to get some down action in the markets, the number will drop, and you can continue up. When it gets above 2.0 and stays there, you are building to an important top.
The Nasdaq 100 number has been above 2.0 now every day since September 21 except for two brief drops below 2.0.
The numbers for this past week in the Nasdaq 100:
1.88, 2.30, 2.54, 2.05, 2.46
Just from I've learned about charting from Jerry Favors and others, if we start shooting down, we're probably going at least down to that row of up-and-down moves that happened around the '70s, when the Dow was anywhere from 575 to 1000.So with that in mind, I'm watching out for a major top, mainly by watching my Nasdaq 100 fund numbers. And unfortunately, that major top is forming, pretty much no doubt about it. Remember, the numbers I will be talking about here is taking the larger number and dividing it by the smaller number to get a quotient. There is almost always more money on the up side than the down side with the Nasdaq 100 funds, so this number is almost always positive. When it gets above 2.0, you're into the danger zone short term, where you are likely to get some down action in the markets, the number will drop, and you can continue up. When it gets above 2.0 and stays there, you are building to an important top.
The Nasdaq 100 number has been above 2.0 now every day since September 21 except for two brief drops below 2.0.
The numbers for this past week in the Nasdaq 100:
1.88, 2.30, 2.54, 2.05, 2.46
2.46 is very high, and it came on a day when the Nasdaq 100 shot up a huge amount when the rest of the market was flat or down a little. The Nasdaq 100 itself was up 2-1/2 %, meaning this fund was up 5% on Friday. Definitely topping behavior.
So the question is, how far up will this number go before we reach that final high? This number topped out at 2.69 at the highs in 2007. But the bar has since been raised so that it got above 4.0 at the last two important highs. So I'm speculating that that's where we're headed here.
I can say we are reaching an important high that will lead to some sort of substantial pullback. I can't say for sure this will be a final high before all hell breaks loose to the down side in the markets. But since we do have a head-and-shoulders like we've never seen before, stretching for an entire decade, and we are right on the edge of the right shoulder, coming to some sort of important top, this could be it. God, I hope I look stupid on this.
Rob
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Crash Starting in a Few Weeks?
I've been busy, and sick, so I got way behind on this blog. We are continuing to trace out a pattern last seen as we climbed to the final high in 2007. That final high in 2007 came at the end of October, I believe. And I think there's a good chance that will happen here as well. I read an article saying the same thing I've heard many times, how October can be a tough month for stocks. And that if we can just make it through October, we can look forward to the Santa Claus rally. When I read an article like that, I figure there's a good chance we'll have a high at the end of October. We'll see.
We still have our solid head and shoulders pattern that I fear will lead to economic disaster real soon. You may have heard that the leader of Iran was saying the end of capitalism was near. I definitely believe he had economic advisors who recognize something as basic as a head and shoulders pattern telling him that it was indeed possible that the U.S. stock market was about to totally crash. Maybe enough people will doubt the market because of that, thus making us continue up.
However, that's not what's happening. The all-important Nasdaq numbers are now well above 2.00 and staying there, getting up to 2.52, 2.41 and 2.60 at the end of September. It's been above 2.00 for 11 straight market days now. We would normally be falling with numbers like that ... unless we were climbing to a final important high. Since the Nasdaq numbers got up to an amazing 4.10 at both of the last major two highs, I think there's a good chance that that is the target for this most important final high. So we still have to climb into the 3's and then the final move up to 4, which I suspect will be it. This final rally could be quite dazzling as we shoot up, discarding die-hard short sellers along the way.
I took a depo recently in a divorce case. It was the depo of the financial advisor to the husband and wife before and at the time of the divorce. The wife had a new boyfriend who was an economist who was saying the market was going to continue lower than the lows of March 2009, so she somehow got control of some funds and sold everything, much to the dismay of the husband, who wanted to stay the course, as the financial advisor was strongly suggesting. So lots of talk at the depo about if they had just stayed the course instead of getting out, how much more money they'd have right now. The witness talked about holding seminars around the time of the market turmoil, counseling the attendees to stay the course. Anybody who got out feels totally stupid. Anybody who stayed in feels very smart. Guess what's going to happen this next time around.
Wish I had time to go through the antics of the $200 million man. I can show how his actions or inactions explain every single up and down move for weeks, except for one day, a giant up day that came within a day or two of the most recent important low. As of Friday, he is out of the market.
I don't mention the Dow up and down funds much because they don't always follow this inverse pattern that I'm talking about. I mainly watch the Dow funds to see if it ever goes positive, meaning more money in the positive Dow fund than in the negative Dow fund. There is almost always more money on the down side than the up side, except at important highs. You'll only see more money on the positive side a couple times a year, the last time being at the high at the end of April. Since then, it's been negative, until this past Friday, October 8, when it went positive. So I think we're either at that final high or two or three weeks away at the most. And all I can say is, I hope and pray I'm wrong about what might follow.
Rob
We still have our solid head and shoulders pattern that I fear will lead to economic disaster real soon. You may have heard that the leader of Iran was saying the end of capitalism was near. I definitely believe he had economic advisors who recognize something as basic as a head and shoulders pattern telling him that it was indeed possible that the U.S. stock market was about to totally crash. Maybe enough people will doubt the market because of that, thus making us continue up.
However, that's not what's happening. The all-important Nasdaq numbers are now well above 2.00 and staying there, getting up to 2.52, 2.41 and 2.60 at the end of September. It's been above 2.00 for 11 straight market days now. We would normally be falling with numbers like that ... unless we were climbing to a final important high. Since the Nasdaq numbers got up to an amazing 4.10 at both of the last major two highs, I think there's a good chance that that is the target for this most important final high. So we still have to climb into the 3's and then the final move up to 4, which I suspect will be it. This final rally could be quite dazzling as we shoot up, discarding die-hard short sellers along the way.
I took a depo recently in a divorce case. It was the depo of the financial advisor to the husband and wife before and at the time of the divorce. The wife had a new boyfriend who was an economist who was saying the market was going to continue lower than the lows of March 2009, so she somehow got control of some funds and sold everything, much to the dismay of the husband, who wanted to stay the course, as the financial advisor was strongly suggesting. So lots of talk at the depo about if they had just stayed the course instead of getting out, how much more money they'd have right now. The witness talked about holding seminars around the time of the market turmoil, counseling the attendees to stay the course. Anybody who got out feels totally stupid. Anybody who stayed in feels very smart. Guess what's going to happen this next time around.
Wish I had time to go through the antics of the $200 million man. I can show how his actions or inactions explain every single up and down move for weeks, except for one day, a giant up day that came within a day or two of the most recent important low. As of Friday, he is out of the market.
I don't mention the Dow up and down funds much because they don't always follow this inverse pattern that I'm talking about. I mainly watch the Dow funds to see if it ever goes positive, meaning more money in the positive Dow fund than in the negative Dow fund. There is almost always more money on the down side than the up side, except at important highs. You'll only see more money on the positive side a couple times a year, the last time being at the high at the end of April. Since then, it's been negative, until this past Friday, October 8, when it went positive. So I think we're either at that final high or two or three weeks away at the most. And all I can say is, I hope and pray I'm wrong about what might follow.
Rob
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