Shocking Move by the Nasdaq 100

When I started this blog, I figured it would be mainly talking about the comical adventures of the $200 million man and probably not so much the Nasdaq 100 because the Nasdaq 100 numbers really only become relevant when you're coming to an important or an important low, and I didn't think those would come up too often. But as it turns out, we are most definitely coming to an important high, and it could be the most important high of our lives.

I've been looking to see if the Nasdaq 100 numbers would get up to 4 times the money on the positive side versus money on the negative side. That's where we got up to at the last two important highs. And I was also watching how we seemed to be doing a good job of retracing the market pattern that we traced out leading up to the final high of 2007. Continuing to trace out that pattern would put us at or near a high right now. The Nasdaq 100 numbers have been over 2.0 and staying there for several weeks now, but I was wondering if those numbers would start to approach 4.0 real quickly here. And they have, as of Friday. I was shocked to see the number go from 2.59 on Thursday all the way to 3.78 on Friday!! So we're basically there.

I usually just show the result of dividing the larger number, almost always positive, by the smaller number when talking about the Nasdaq 100 because that's what's really important, and there usually isn't big jumps in the numbers day to day. The numbers for the past week were:

2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78

I'll show you what the actual numbers were for the above numbers to show what a jump we had on Friday:

Monday: 149.85 on the positive side
70.25 on the negative side

Tuesday: 154.89/54.30 (some giving up on the short side)

Wednesday: 154.91/53.64

Thursday: 143.38/55.27

Friday: 203.63/53.94

As you can see, a tremendous jump on the positive side on Friday. I believe the reason for the surge of interest on the positive side is that the Nasdaq 100 reached new highs for the year last Friday and Monday, and that's just what a lot of people wait for to be convinced that a rally is for real, to go to new highs. So the market does whatever it takes to convince them.

The $200 million man has been mainly out of the market, allowing us to continue up. Our one large down day this past week was the one day he jumped in on the positive side, but then he jumped back out.

Based on how things went back in March and April when we were reaching the last important high, we probably still have two or three weeks to go before the final high. I'm saying that because back then we went over 3.0 and then it was several weeks before we went over 4.0, to the final high number of 4.06, which actually came two days AFTER the final high.

I didn't want to get into advice on this blog. But it's all so clear to me, I have to say that I think any of you reading this should sell every stock you own in the coming couple weeks. I can guarantee you a strong move down is coming. The real fear, why I would suggest selling all of your stocks, is that there is a very good chance that this is the final high before the incredible ugliness of the third wave down begins. As always, I hope and pray I look totally stupid on this.

Rob