He's In on the Down Side

I'm going to try my best to do this blog daily as we climb to this important high. We'll see if I'm able to. I would estimate two to three weeks to this important high. There is a distinct possibility that it's two to three weeks to one of the most important highs of our economic lives. We are looking for the Nasdaq 100 to go above 4.0, meaning there is four times as much money on the positive side as on the negative side. I believe that will mark the final high.

The Nasdaq numbers for the past week plus today:

2.13, 2.85, 2.89, 2.59, 3.78, 3.44

So it appears that the Nasdaq 100 is going to stay above 3.0, and it's still going up. This is absolutely classic topping behavior. What happened at the last two important highs was we got up over 3.0, and then it stayed above 3.0 for two to three weeks, finally getting up over 4.0, which came two days after the final high. I'm expecting the same pattern here since everything is happening exactly the same as the last two highs.

So when we start heading down, the headlines will all say that investors have lost confidence. It's actually the exact opposite of that, as I think my Nasdaq 100 numbers show. Everyone piled on, leaving no new buyers.

On the humorous side, the $200 million man continues to be almost always wrong. He has been out of the market the past couple weeks, except for one day, last Tuesday, where he jumped in on the positive side. Of course that was the only down day of the past week and a half for the S&P 500. Today he went half in on the negative side, and we had an up day, although not that big of an up day. I'll betcha we get that big up day in the next day or two if he stays in that position. If this guy ever starts winning on the up side, that's another topping sign, which may or may not happen here.

Rob