Hate to Tell You ... Nasdaq 100 Hits 4.02

Well, that was fast. The Nasdaq 100 numbers for today are:

210.87 on the positive side
52.44 on the negative side

which unfortunately equals 4.02 when you divide it out. I've been looking for a move above 4.0 to mark the high coming in, but this seems a bit quick to me, since we spent several weeks in the 3.0 to 4.0 range on the last couple important highs. I suspect there is a week or two left until the final high, but it's most definitely possible that we are at that high right now.

The $200 million man got out of his half-in on the down side position and moved to half-in on the positive side in the S&P 500, yielding a basically flat day today.

So as I've been saying, I can promise you an important high, either right now or within a week or two. The important high we had in mid-January led to a decline of one month to a low in mid-February. The important high we had in mid-April led to a decline of two and a half months to a low around July 1. So I'm sure this decline will last at least a month or two. But with where we are in the long-term head-and-shoulders pattern, which is poised on the right shoulder, looking down in the abyss, this is potentially one of the most important highs ever, coming right up. Or maybe not. Maybe it will just be another move down to the same general area and then yet another move up. I wouldn't count on it.

Rob